What’s on the ground in Ukraine now is already substantially worse than what it was able to bring to bear at the outset of the war. More than that, the IISS believes that Russia has already burned through more than two-thirds of its more modern T-80 and T-90 series tanks. However, they also believe that much of that Russian reserve is “junk.” It consists of old tank bodies too badly damaged by time and corrupt officials to ever be made workable again. (These are the folks that create the best known list ranking the size of each of the world’s militaries and laying out what equipment each holds.) Right now, they believe that Russia has around 1,800 tanks in Ukraine and another 5,000 in storage. The annual meetings of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) was held this week. Based on published figures at the outset of the invasion, the best guess was that Russia still had somewhere between 5,200 and 8,000 tanks out there, with roughly 2,000 on the battlefield and the rest “in storage.” Those stored tanks need repair and updating before they can enter the fight, so at this point they reach Ukraine at at a rate of about 60 a month-well below the number that Russia is losing each month.Īs it turns out, this number seems to be fairly accurate, but in one sense it may overestimate what Russia can actually put in the field. On Saturday, we took a look at Russia’s supply of main battle tanks. Why does Russia keep attacking Bakhmut? Because it can. Unfortunately, it’s on a YouTube “short” which doesn’t embed as neatly as a a regular YouTube video. This is the best, simplest, and most convincing answer to “why is Russia wasting thousands of soldiers trying to capture Bakhmut if Bakhmut isn’t of high strategic value?” that I’ve ever seen. ![]() I still don’t have a good handle on the location of the new trenches and fortifications Ukraine has been constructing west of Bakhmut, but I’ll scan the satellite images and see if there’s anything to be seen. I’ve highlighted the course of the river inside the city to give an idea of what this would mean if Ukraine did step back to this point. It’s only a few meters wide and the banks are not particularly steep. ![]() As many people have pointed out in the past, when it comes to obstacles in the landscape, this is not a big one. One statement that appeared on pro-Ukrainian channels today suggests that Ukraine is pulling back behind the narrow Bakhmutovka River. Open image in another tab for a larger view. However, geolocating that building places it far up closer to Blahodatne - I’ve added a little red man to the map to show the location. Russian sources are claiming that Wagner has taken Paraskoiivka and showing photos of mercenaries in front of an official looking building. Not much appears to have moved around Bakhmut today.
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